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BY BRENT ISRAELSEN
THE SALT LAKE TRIBUNE
Summer is
about as far away as it can be right now, but Utah water officials already are
starting to sweat.
They had hoped for some good news last week from the national Climate Prediction
Center regarding snowfall projections for northern Utah during the next six
months.
They are still in suspense. "When you look at the long-range
forecasts, it's a tossup," said Randy Julander, of the U.S. Natural Resources
Conservation Service. "Everything is rather neutral."
In just about any
other year, neutral would be good. Or, at least, not bad. But after a long dry
spell, populous northern Utah does not need a typical snowfall. It needs one of
near-epic proportions. That probably will not happen.
Complicating matters is that winter temperatures are predicted to
be higher than normal, meaning whatever snow falls in the lower elevations will
not stick around for spring runoff.
If this all sounds familiar, it
should. The 2000-01 water year ending Sept. 30 was the second year in a row of
below-normal precipitation statewide.
More significant, it was the third
year in a row of below-normal snowpack for northern Utah. Snowmelt in the spring
fills the reservoirs, which provide Utah with about 85 percent of its water.
"We've been through another pretty ugly year. There was not a decent snowpack,
no decent runoff, and the summer was long, hot and dry," Julander said.
Snowpack, which is a measurement of water in snow, was 54 percent of normal in
the Bear River watershed this year, 63 percent in the Weber River watershed, and
55 percent in the Provo-Jordan watershed. Precipitation was 70 percent, 72
percent and 74 percent of normal in those same regions, respectively.
The water situation in the rest of the state is better, thanks to snowpack and
precipitation levels that have been closer to normal.
The cumulative
effect of the below-normal snowpack and rainfall in the north has drawn down
many key reservoirs, including Deer Creek Reservoir on the Provo River. Deer
Creek is about 51 percent of capacity, well below its 66 percent target for this
time of year.
Farther north, the seven reservoirs operated by the Weber
Basin Water Conservancy District are at just 35 percent of capacity. Weber Basin
General Manager Tage Flint said the district tries to keep the reservoirs at
near 50 percent of capacity in the fall.
Of most concern, however, is
that the dry trend also has depleted moisture levels in the soils of northern
Utah. Current soil moisture readings in the north range are between 2 percent
and 15 percent, significantly below normal levels of 25 percent to 35 percent.
The dry soils will act as an enormous sponge next spring when the snow
begins to melt, leaving less water to run into streams and reservoirs.
That's why water officials are dreaming of a whiter-than-white Christmas -- and
then some. In some parts of northern Utah, it will take snowfall 50 percent
above average to produce an average amount of runoff. "We're hoping for a wet
winter, but it doesn't look like we're going to get it," said Jeff Neiermeyer,
deputy public works director for Salt Lake City.
An average or below-
average snowfall would mean a ratcheting up of water conservation programs,
which could start early in the season and possibly involve mandatory no-water
days.
A shortage of water could also mean additional hardship for
northern Utah farmers, whose irrigation water was cut by 20 percent this year
and could be reduced again.
While a dry winter would be gloomy indeed,
water officials say there is enough stored water right now to get northern Utah
through next year. Jordanelle Reservoir, for example, held nearly 250,000
acre-feet of water last week, or about 80 percent of capacity. Salt Lake City's
main reservoir, Little Dell, has an average "carry-over" for next year.
Water officials also are encouraged by Utahns' response to pleas for
conservation.
"The general public has done a better job this year
[conserving water] than they've ever done," said Gene Shawcroft, assistant
general manager of the Central Utah Water Conservancy District, which stores
water from Uinta Mountain Range streams for delivery to the Wasatch Front.
The Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District, the major supplier of
water to Salt Lake County, delivered 17 percent less water in the summer than
during summer 2000. Weber Basin residents cut their usage by 18 percent.
Still, there is learning to be done by Wasatch Front residents and businesses,
some of whom can be seen running their sprinkler systems this month.
"The days are short and cool and plants are in hibernation mode," Neiermeyer
said. "You don't need to water your lawns anymore."
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